College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What Week 15's CFP top 25, bracket could look like entering conference championships

The fifth College Football Playoff rankings of 2025 — Conference Championship Week edition — are up next, and things will be interesting as the committee reacts to Texas beating Texas A&M and more. Before the rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where each potential top 25 team could land.

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The fifth of six CFP top 25 rankings reveals happens on Tuesday, Dec. 2. Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams, and more to help rank the teams as I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the .

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The first top 25 projections | Week 15, Conference Championships

These predictions are as of Sunday, Nov. 30.

1. Ohio State (12-0) | LW: 1 — Ohio State didn't allow a top-15 ranked Michigan team to score a touchdown. That's a dominant performance to hold onto the top spot.
2. Indiana (12-0) | LW: 2 — Indiana will stay No. 2 after blasting Purdue.
3. Georgia (11-1) | LW: 4 — Georgia beat a ranked Georgia Tech team. Another ranked win will allow Georgia to rise to the No. 3 spot.
4. Texas Tech (11-1) | LW: 5 — Committee Chair Hunter Yurachek said this about Texas Tech's ranking last week, "I'd say at five they are very close to four and very close to six," highlighting TTU's margin of victory. I think the committee will have the Red Raiders ranked No. 4 after a 49-0 win over West Virginia.
5. Texas A&M (11-1) | LW: 3 — Texas A&M and Oregon are nearly identical in strength of record (3/4) and strength of schedule (15/16). Texas A&M leads Oregon in both categories and has a better win over Notre Dame compared to Oregon's win over USC. That offsets Oregon's loss to Indiana being better than Texas A&M's loss to Texas.
6. Oregon (11-1) | LW: 6 — Oregon beat a ranked USC team, but I don’t think that's enough to move the Ducks past other one-loss teams. Of the one-loss teams ranked above it, Oregon has the worst best win.
7. Ole Miss (11-1) | LW: 7 — Lane Kiffin is officially LSU's head coach, with defensive coordinator Pete Golding taking over as head coach at Ole Miss. Regardless, I don't think the committee will drop a one-loss Ole Miss team below a two-loss team. As Yurachek said, the committee doesn't "have a data point for Ole Miss without their head coach." Without that data point, Ole Miss won't fall below an Oklahoma team it beat head-to-head.
8. Oklahoma (10-2) | LW: 8 — Oklahoma stays at eight after escaping LSU.
9. Notre Dame (10-2) | LW: 9 — Notre Dame finalized its resume with a 10-2 finish. For now, that's enough to keep the Fighting Irish in the projected playoff field.
10. Alabama (10-2) | LW: 10 — Alabama will stay in the top 10 after escaping Auburn.
11. BYU (11-1) | LW: 11 — BYU beat UCF and will remain the first team out this week. With one-loss, the committee will position the Cougars in a win-or-go-home Big 12 title game.
12. Miami (FL) (10-2) | LW: 12 — Miami beat a ranked Pitt team by a larger margin of victory than Notre Dame. Miami has leapfrogged teams that have won in each of the last four weeks, but I think that stops here as BYU has a better strength of record and strength of schedule. While I personally think Miami should be ranked above Notre Dame and that the head-to-head matchup matters, SMU's loss hurt Miami's resume this week and the committee has a reason to not move the Hurricanes up.
13. Texas (9-3) | LW: 16 — Texas will move up to No. 13 after beating Texas A&M, but it won't be able to overcome three losses to get into the playoff picture. Wins over Texas A&M and Vanderbilt are better than any team Utah has beat, and Vanderbilt — well that's head-to-head. A loss to a Florida team with a losing record is worse than any of Miami's losses, so the Longhorns hit their ceiling.
14. Vanderbilt (10-2) | LW: 14 — Vanderbilt added a ranked win over Tennessee and will move in front of Utah since it ranks better metrically.
15. Utah (10-2) | LW: 13 — Utah beat Kansas, but falls two spots as other teams will benefit from beating ranked opponents.
16. Southern California (9-3) | LW: 17 — USC moves up to 16 after a bounceback win over rival UCLA.
17. Virginia (10-2) | LW: 18 — UVA moves up after clinching an ACC Championship Game berth with a win over Virginia Tech.
18. Arizona (9-3) | LW: 25 — Arizona moves from the last spot in the rankings to inside the top 20 after beating a then-top-20 team, Arizona State. The Wildcats closed the season on a five-game win streak
19. Michigan (9-3) | LW: 15 — Michigan could've fell more after not scoring a touchdown against Ohio State, but all other teams ranked No. 19-23 all lost.
20. Tulane (9-2) | LW: 24 — Tulane moves up after teams ranked No. 19-23 all lost.
21. Houston (9-3) | LW: NR — At 9-3, I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston rejoin the rankings after losing last week. The Cougars have a win over an Arizona team poised to be in the top-20.
22. Iowa (8-4) | LW: NR — There will be a four-loss team in the rankings this week. Will the highest team be a team that was unranked last week and won like Missouri or Iowa? Or will it be a ranked team that lost this past week, like Tennessee, Arizona State or Pittsburgh? I think Iowa will be the pick. The Hawkeyes are the only four-loss team with a top-20 strength of record and strength of schedule.
23. Missouri (8-4) | LW: NR — Missouri is the next four-loss team in the rankings after ending the season on a win. The Tigers have a top-23 ranked strength of record and strength of schedule.
24. James Madison (11-1) | LW: NR — James Madison is 11-1 with its only loss coming to Louisville. The Dukes have the 18th-best strength of record but only the 118th-best strength of schedule. However, James Madison ranks better in both metrics than North Texas so they'll land in the rankings above the Mean Green. 
25. North Texas (11-1) | LW: NR — North Texas is 11-1 with just the 125th-best strength of schedule out of 136 teams. Adding a 27-point loss to South Florida doesn't help when CFP executive director Rich Clark says "if they do lose, how badly did they lose" is a factor the committee evaluates.

Dropping out: No. 19 Tennessee, No. 20 Arizona State, No. 21 SMU, No. 22 Pittsburgh, No. 23 Georgia Tech

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the bracket could look like

Fourth conference champion: No. 17 Virginia
Fifth conference champion: No. 20 Tulane
First Teams Out: No. 11 BYU, No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Texas, No. 14 Vanderbilt

LOOKING AHEAD: 2025-26 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites 

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

Where does Texas A&M fall, and how high does Texas rise?

Texas A&M is now in the one-loss conversation with Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon and Ole Miss. Texas A&M does have a win over Notre Dame that it can lean on to support its case for a top-five seed, but the committee could drop the Aggies further.

Meanwhile, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian campaigned for a CFP spot after knocking off the Aggies. Texas has three losses. Is Texas's win enough to move in front of two-loss teams?

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Does the committee ding Ole Miss for losing Lane Kiffin?

Will the CFP committee drop Ole Miss now that Lane Kiffin is headed to LSU? We know that defensive coordinator Pete Golding is replacing Kiffin as the Rebels' head coach, but does it matter to the committee which Ole Miss coaches follow Kiffin to Baton Rouge? There's a lot to be determined between Sunday evening and Tuesday night.

Is the gap any closer between Notre Dame and Miami?

Miami beat a ranked Pitt team by a wider margin of victory than Notre Dame. Here's what Executive Director Rich Clark had to say on margin of victory last week:

"Sometimes margin of victory does come into play in the discussion but it is not a hard-and-fast rule. They look at the whole game, the entirety of their performance — of the team's performance. Now, in our data, with our strength of schedule, margin of victory is taken into account up to 24 points, and that is accounted for in our data but only as it pertains to strength of schedule. So I will say, it's not overly weighted in our discussions, but certainly it's a factor when we're watching a game and it's a small factor in some of our data."

Will Miami's margin of victory be a factor that bridge the oft-questioned gap between the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish? Or will Miami have to hope for conference title game losses to get it into the playoffs?

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Will James Madison be ranked?

James Madison finished the regular season 11-1, but is unranked. The Dukes could be in contention for a CFP spot, but it might depend on where JMU is ranked in comparison to North Texas. If Tulane loses, that could open a window for James Madison to get in, regardless of what happens in the ACC title game.