Sixteen teams have a reasonable shot at a College Football Playoff at-large bid entering the final week of the regular season. Here’s a breakdown of why every team should get into the playoff, based on a handful of scenarios.
All scenarios are entering Week 14 games.
Ohio State
Case for with a win over Michigan
If Ohio State beats Michigan, the most it could finish with is one loss. It’s doubtful that the Buckeyes will miss the CFP, even with a conference championship game loss.
Case for with a loss to Michigan
If Ohio State loses to Michigan, the Buckeyes would miss the Big Ten title game if Indiana wins. In the event Ohio State misses the Big Ten title game, it would still likely be in with one loss.
FOLLOW: Tracking the top moments from College Football's Week 14
Indiana
Case for with a win over Purdue
If Indiana beats Purdue, it’ll be undefeated entering the Big Ten Championship and will likely be in the playoffs no matter the result of the title game.
Case for with a loss to Purdue and no Big Ten title berth
If Indiana loses to Purdue and misses the Big Ten title game, the Hoosiers will still be in the playoffs as a one-loss team.
Case for with a loss to Purdue and a loss in the Big Ten title game
If Indiana loses to Purdue and Ohio State wins, the Hoosiers would still play for the Big Ten title thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon. In this scenario, Indiana loses back-to-back games to close its season and finish with an 11-2 record.
The loss to a 2-9 Purdue team would be bad, and depending on how the loss looks in the Big Ten Championship, things will be interesting. Indiana has only the 38th-best strength of schedule entering Week 14, but the notable win over Oregon should keep the Hoosiers in the playoff field.
CONF. TITLE SCENARIOS: Click or tap here to see every conference championship scenarios
Texas A&M
Case for with a win over Texas
If Texas A&M beats Texas, it can book its playoff spot. The Aggies would be undefeated entering the SEC Championship and won’t get left out with a loss.
Case for with a loss to Texas and no SEC title game berth
If Texas A&M loses to Texas and misses out on a chance to play for the SEC Championship, it would still be in as a one-loss SEC team.
Case for with a loss to Texas and an SEC title loss
If Texas A&M loses to Texas, it can still make the SEC Championship Game if Auburn and Mississippi State win. In the event Texas A&M then loses the SEC Championship Game, the Aggies would be 11-2.
An 11-2 Texas A&M team would be compared to a 10-2 Ole Miss and a 9-3 Alabama for sure. Regardless of the result from Oklahoma’s game against LSU or Vanderbilt’s game against Tennessee, Texas A&M should get into the playoffs as at worst the fourth-highest-ranked SEC team. The Aggies would flaunt a win over Notre Dame that it could use to boost its resume, offsetting consecutive losses.
CONFERENCE TITLE GAME INFO: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | SEC
Georgia
Case for with a win over Georgia Tech and no SEC title berth
Georgia is the No. 4 ranked team with just one loss ahead of a matchup against Georgia Tech. A win in their last game will almost guarantee the Bulldogs a playoff spot.
Case for with a win over Georgia Tech and an SEC title loss
If Georgia beats Georgia Tech and loses the SEC title game to Texas A&M, Alabama or Ole Miss, the Bulldogs would be a two-loss team entering the final rankings.
If the Bulldogs lose to Ole Miss, that’ll be a split in the season series so they should get in based on that.
If the Bulldogs lose to Alabama, that means they’ll be 0-2 against the Tide this season. A loss to Texas A&M would be the first time they’ve matched up. A loss to either opponent shouldn’t knock Georgia out of the playoffs thanks to wins over potentially ranked teams Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Georgia Tech.
Case for with a loss to Georgia Tech and no SEC title berth
At 10-2 with losses to Georgia Tech and Alabama, Georgia’s case for a playoff spot will be complicated. Alabama’s currently ranked 10th, so the Bulldogs could fall below the Tide in the next rankings, putting them firmly on the bubble.
However, Georgia will have wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee on its resume. Few bubble teams will be able to match those wins.
Case for with a loss to Georgia Tech and an SEC title loss
Would a three-loss Georgia team get into the playoffs? It likely depends on how they lose and who they lose to.
If Georgia loses to Ole Miss in the SEC title game, it would be the best-case scenario because it means Alabama is out of the playoff picture and the Bulldogs would have a win to counter the loss to the SEC Champion. As the only team to beat the SEC champion, Georgia would have maybe the best win in the country.
If Georgia loses to Texas A&M, it will have lost to the nation’s No. 2 team most likely. Alabama and Texas would both be out of the playoff picture, so that’s two more SEC teams the Bulldogs could potentially rank above. The Bulldogs can then point to its ranked wins to get a spot over an ACC, Big 12 or Big Ten team.
If Georgia loses to Alabama, things are more challenging. One would have to think a three-loss Bulldogs squad ranks above a three-loss Texas squad thanks to head-to-head. That win over Texas is also a common opponent with Vanderbilt, so there’s another advantage there.
A win over Ole Miss also is a better ranked win than Miami’s win over Notre Dame, so there’s another advantage for the Bulldogs. Utah won’t have a comparable win either, so Georgia’s resume is the best on the bubble.
UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here's a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams
Texas Tech
Case for with a loss to West Virginia and no Big 12 title berth
If Texas Tech loses to West Virginia, it’ll be its second loss of the season, joining a loss to Arizona State. That unranked loss will go down as a bad loss.However, Texas Tech will have a win over BYU, which could only get better if the Cougars win a Big 12 title. That win will help Texas Tech stay in the playoff field.
Case for with a loss to West Virginia and a Big 12 title game loss
If Texas Tech loses to West Virginia and somehow makes the Big 12 title game, that means it’ll have two losses on its resume, with West Virginia also unranked. The Big 12 title game loss will have been to BYU, creating a split in the season series. The loss to BYU shouldn’t penalize the Red Raiders based on how they blasted the Cougars during the regular season.
With wins over BYU and Utah, Texas Tech might have the best wins of any three-loss team. If any three-loss team is getting in, it’ll be the Red Raiders.
CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule
Ole Miss
Case for with a win over Mississippi State and no SEC title berth
If Ole Miss beats Mississippi State and doesn’t get to play in the SEC Championship Game, the Rebels will have just one loss. Ole Miss will be in.
Case for with a loss to Mississippi State
If Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State, it’ll be 10-2 with losses to Georgia and Mississippi State. The Rebels have the 33rd-best strength of schedule entering the final regular season week and one win over a currently ranked opponent, Oklahoma. With that head-to-head victory, Ole Miss should get in as a two-loss team over a two-loss Oklahoma team. The win over Oklahoma is also better than any win from Notre Dame, so the Rebels have an argument over the Fighting Irish, too.
Case for with a win over Mississippi State and an SEC title loss
If Ole Miss loses the SEC Championship game, it’ll be 10-2. However, for Ole Miss to make the SEC title game, Alabama and Texas A&M will have had to lose. That means Georgia will be the SEC Champion.
With Alabama knocked out of the playoff picture, that will open up an extra playoff spot from the current rankings. Throw in a win over Oklahoma, and Ole Miss has a resume worthy of a top-10 spot.
LOOKING AHEAD: 2025-26 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites
Oregon
Case for with a win over Washington and no Big Ten title berth
A one-loss Oregon team won’t get leapfrogged by any two-loss team. The Ducks are in with a win over Washington in its last game.
Case for with a win over Washington and a Big Ten title loss
A 10-2 Oregon team with a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game would give the Ducks two losses to arguably the nation’s best team. That’s not going to hurt the resume, especially when the first game was tied in the fourth quarter. A two-loss Oregon will have the best losses in the country of any two-loss team and should be in the postseason.
Case for with a loss to Washington
An Oregon loss to Washington gives the Ducks a 10-2 finish. Washington would likely be ranked in the final CFP rankings, giving the Ducks two ranked losses. Oregon can still get a playoff spot with a strength of record that ranks fifth entering the regular-season finale, plus wins over USC and Iowa. That’s a solid resume for a two-loss team, without a bad loss like a bubble team like Miami has.
STREAKING: College football's longest active regular-season win streaks
Oklahoma
Case for with a win over LSU
Oklahoma is already ranked No. 8 before playing LSU. A win over the Tigers should guarantee the Sooners a playoff spot. Even if Alabama wins the SEC title and BYU wins the Big 12 title and both leap in front of Oklahoma, the committee has already shown that it thinks Oklahoma is better than every other two-loss team. Oklahoma should finish no lower than 10th win a win over LSU.
Case for with a loss to LSU
If Oklahoma loses to LSU, it will have three loses. Regardless of what Michigan does in The Game, the Sooners will have a head-to-head win there. If Texas ends the season with a loss, Oklahoma won’t have to worry about that, either. If Alabama wins the SEC championship, Oklahoma will have the best win in the country of any bubble team.
That’s a lot of ifs, but Oklahoma could have the best resume of any three-loss team.
Notre Dame
Case for with a win over Stanford
Notre Dame has to win for a spot in the playoffs. A win over Stanford gives Notre Dame a 10-2 finish. The CFP committee already values Notre Dame’s losses more than Miami’s ignoring the head-to-head. So long as BYU and Alabama don’t win conference titles, the Fighting Irish should remain in the top 10 and earn an at-large.
Alabama
Case for with a win over Auburn and an SEC title loss
If Alabama finishes 10-3 with a loss in the SEC Championship Game, it’ll be hard to keep out a team for losing a title game. If BYU loses the conversation could be between Alabama and Miami.
Miami likely won’t play in its conference title game while Alabama earned its spot as one of the best teams in its conference. The Tide shouldn’t be penalized for that and should still get into the postseason.
Case for with a loss to Auburn
A loss to Auburn gives Alabama a 9-3 record on the year with losses to Florida State, Oklahoma and Auburn. While the Tide would have two losses to unranked teams, it would have wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Vanderbilt win gives Alabama a floor, and Utah won’t have any comparable wins to rank the Utes over the Tide.
Alabama would need help during conference championship week to get in. Losses from Georgia and BYU could be what it takes to get the Crimson Tide back into the top 10 for an at-large spot.
BYU
Case for with a win over UCF and a loss in the Big 12 title game
BYU would have to beat UCF to stay in the playoff conversation. A loss to UCF would need absolute chaos to break loose which is far too unlikely to happen for it to reasonably be included in this article.
If BYU beats UCF and loses in the Big 12 title game to Texas Tech, that means the Cougars will have lost twice to a top-5 team. BYU would have better losses than two-loss teams like Alabama, Miami, and Oklahoma. A win over a potentially top-15 Utah team also boosts the resume.
In a debate for the final CFP spot among two-loss teams, BYU will be hard to leave out.
Utah
Case for with a win over Kansas and no Big 12 title berth
If Utah beats Kansas, it’ll need help to get into the playoff. In the likely event that Utah misses out on the Big 12 title game, the Utes will be 10-2 with losses to Texas Tech and BYU.
Utah will need Arizona State to win over Arizona so it has a ranked win on its resume. If BYU wins the Big 12 title, Utah will be the third-best team in a conference that has two playoff teams most likely.
When comparing Utah to the fourth-best Big Ten or SEC team, that should matter.
Miami (Fla.)
Case for with a win over Pittsburgh and no ACC title berth
Miami closing with a ranked win over Pittsburgh would give the Hurricanes a ranked win to add to a win over Notre Dame. If SMU wins the ACC, that loss also looks a lot better.
If head-to-head matters, Miami’s win over fellow two-loss team Notre Dame could come into play as the two teams near each other in the rankings for the final spot. Miami proved itself on the field and should get in before the Fighting Irish.
Vanderbilt
Case for with a win over Tennessee
Vanderbilt will need a lot of help to get into the playoffs at No. 14. However, in the scenario where the Commodores are in the discussion for a playoff spot, Vandy can use a win over Tennessee to add to its resume. Vanderbilt has only lost to ranked teams, which is something other teams won’t be able to say when their resumes are compared.
Texas
Case for with a win over Texas A&M
If Texas beats Texas A&M, the Longhorns will finish the season 9-3. Texas will have wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, with losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia.
The win over Texas A&M is better than almost all bubble teams. While a loss to Florida is bad, the win over the nation’s No. 3 team could be enough to leapfrog two loss teams on the bubble that haven’t beat anyone comparable.
Michigan
Case for with a win over Ohio State and no Big Ten title berth
Michigan would have the best win in the country in this scenario. The Wolverines will be 10-2 with losses to Oklahoma and USC. Neither of those losses are bad losses.
With no bad losses and college football’s top win should get Michigan the final at-large spot.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.
