College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What Week 12's CFP top 25, bracket could look like

The second College Football Playoff rankings for Week 12 will be revealed in no time. Before the rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where each potential top 25 team could land.

The second of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 11. Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams, and more to help rank the teams as I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the .

MORE: Recapping Week 11 of college football

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The first top 25 projections | Week 12

These predictions are as of Sunday, Nov. 9. 

1. Ohio State (9-0) | LW: 1 — Ohio State stays put after a big day from Jeremiah Smith led the Buckeyes to a win over Purdue.
2. Texas A&M (9-0)| LW: 3 — "I think you're talking about really small margins when you
   think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M," said CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades last week.  A win over then-ranked Missouri could be the marginal difference that gets Texas A&M to the No. 2 ranking.
3. Indiana (10-0)| LW: 2 — Indiana needed a fourth-quarter drive to defeat a now 3-6 Penn State team. That close win drops the Hoosiers to No. 3.
4. Alabama (8-1)| LW: 4 — Alabama stays put at No. 4 after beating LSU.
5. Georgia (8-1)| LW: 5 — Georgia blasted Mississippi State 41-21 and will stay in the top five.
6. Ole Miss (9-1)| LW: 6 — Ole Miss could fall after beating an FCS opponent, but I doubt it. The Rebels stay at No. 6.
7. Texas Tech (9-1)| LW: 8 — While Texas Tech beat top-10 team BYU, the committee will still have to take into account Texas Tech's loss to Arizona State. That'll be the worst loss of the top-10 one-loss teams, so the Red Raiders only rise to No. 7.
8. Oregon (8-1)| LW: 9 — Oregon has a better strength of record and strength of schedule than BYU and will rank above the Cougars this week since the committee has highlighted new metrics.
9. Notre Dame (7-2)| LW: 10 — Notre Dame beat a now two-loss Navy team last week. That'll keep the Fighting Irish as the highest-ranked two-loss team.
10. Texas (7-2)| LW: 11 — Texas had a bye, but will move into the playoff bracket after BYU's loss.
11. Oklahoma (7-2)| LW: 12 — Oklahoma won't leapfrog any two-loss teams after a bye week. They'll be the first team out of the playoff this week.
12. BYU (8-1)| LW: 7 — BYU didn't just lose to Texas Tech, it got dominated as it trailed 26-0 in the fourth quarter. Committee Chair Rhoades mentioned quality losses, saying, "If you lose, we evaluate what type of loss that is."  Even though BYU lost to a top-10 team, the way the loss will drop them behind a trio of two-loss teams. Luckily, the Cougars have a head-to-head buffer over Utah.
13. Utah (7-2)| LW: 13 — Utah stays put at No. 13 after a bye.
14. Vanderbilt (8-2)| LW: 16 — Vanderbilt snuck past Auburn in a game that came down to the wire. The Commodores move up to No. 14.
15. Georgia Tech (8-1)| LW: 17 — Georgia Tech had a bye last week, but will be the top-ranked ACC team after losses elsewhere.
16. Miami (7-2) | LW: 18 — Miami moves up to No. 16 this week after a win over Syracuse. Rhoades said, "For Miami, it's about consistency and their lack of consistency. We just need to see more consistency out of Miami headed down the stretch." The Hurricanes bouncing back after a loss is a good way to start to establish that consistency.
17. Southern California (7-2)| LW: 19 — USC beat Northwestern to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Trojans move up to No. 17.
18. Michigan (7-2)| LW: 21 — Michigan had a bye last week, but moves up thanks to a pair of ACC losses.
19. Pittsburgh (7-2)| LW: 24 — Pitt had a bye last week and will move in front of its ACC counterparts that lost.
20. Tennessee (6-3)| LW: 25 — Tennessee had a bye last week and will remain the highest three-loss team.
21. SMU (7-3)| LW: NR — I think here is where you'll hear the committee reference strength of record the most. SMU has the No. 23 SOR in the country, with a win over Miami. That'll see the Mustangs make their 2025 CFP rankings debut.
22. Virginia (8-2)| LW: 14 — Virginia lost to Wake Forest in a game where the Cavaliers didn't score a touchdown.  In some years, a result like that might've left UVA unranked, but a win over Louisville keeps the Cavaliers in the rankings.
23. Louisville (7-2)| LW: 15 — Louisville's overtime loss to Cal doesn't look as bad as Virginia's loss, but the Cardinals lost head-to-head to UVA. That means if Virginia drops, so will Louisville, even with other good wins elsewhere.
24. Cincinnati (7-2)| LW: NR — Cincinnati makes its first appearance in the 2025 CFP rankings after a bye week. The Bearcats had won seven straight before a loss to a Utah team that the committee ranks in the top-15. Cincy also has a win over a common opponent when compared to Iowa — a 38-30 win over Iowa State. The Bearcats will also be ranked above Big 12 counterpart Houston thanks to a better strength of schedule.
25. Iowa (6-3)| LW: 20 — I think the committee looks at Iowa's two-point loss to a top-10 Oregon team and keeps the Hawkeyes in the rankings. While a team from the American like South Florida could grab this spot, I'll need to see the committee actually rank a team from the conference before predicting they'll rank an American team.

Dropping out: No. 22 Missouri, No. 23 Washington

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the bracket could look like

Fourth conference champion: No. 15 Georgia Tech
Fifth conference champion: South Florida
First Teams Out: No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 12 BYU, No. 13 Utah, No. 14 Vanderbilt

LOOKING AHEAD: 2025-26 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites 

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

How far does BYU fall?

BYU was the lowest-ranked undefeated team at No. 7 last week. The Cougars have since lost their first game. The committee has emphasized a greater impact coming from strength of record and strength of schedule, where BYU ranks No. 8 and No. 28, respectively, in .

BYU ranks worse than Oregon in strength of record. BYU ranks worse in strength of schedule than teams like Texas (13), Oklahoma (16), Vanderbilt (21) and Oregon (24). Notre Dame's strength of schedule ranks 30th, just behind the Cougars.

We could see BYU outside of the top 10 based on the metrics, even with one loss.

UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here's a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams

The ACC is in shambles. Now what?

The ACC saw its top two-ranked teams, No. 14 Virginia and No. 15 Louisville, lose last week. The conference likely won't have a team ranked in the top 12. The highest-ranked team will likely be Georgia Tech, but there's potential for all sorts of tiebreaking scenarios down the stretch with four current one-loss teams. One-ACC-loss teams Georgia Tech, Virginia and SMU won't meet in the regular season, so things could get crazy if the ACC's top-ranked team doesn't end up playing for the title.

What to make of the fifth conference champion?

Last week, we didn't have a ranked fifth conference leader, but the committee told us that Memphis would've been the team to earn the auto-bid out of the American. Memphis then lost to Tulane Friday night. That loss creates a potentially chaotic situation.

Who will the committee place as the 12 seed in the bracket? Will it be Tulane after beating Memphis, even with losses to a now-top-10 Ole Miss team and a 22-point loss to UTSA? North Texas is 8-1, but it lost to South Florida head-to-head by 27 points. That same South Florida team lost to Memphis, but beat Boise State and Florida in nonconference play.

MORE: 5 things to watch for in college football's final month

Beyond the American, the Sun Belt has a great candidate in 8-1 James Madison. However, a 14-point loss to Louisville looks worse after the Cardinals lost last week. Could it be too early for the committee to place the Dukes in the bracket?

The Mountain West's best playoff candidate was San Diego State a week ago. The Aztecs lost to Hawaii and have two-time defending champion Boise State up next. If the Broncos win, UNLV might be the only two-loss team left in the conference. Yet, the Rebels have two conference losses that could keep them out of the conference title game.

The MAC doesn't have a team with fewer than three losses. That leaves the CUSA as the only conference still alive. 7-2 Kennesaw State plays 6-3 Jacksonville State this week, while 7-2 Western Kentucky still has a matchup will LSU remaining.

The race for the last auto-bid will be one to watch.